Most likely causes (in order of likelihood)

  1. Dried, cracked, or warped flush ball seal — by far the most common cause.
  2. Debris stuck on the seal — sometimes simply cleaning the seal restores function.
  3. Damaged or stuck flush ball/blade mechanism.
  4. Failed water valve allowing water to bypass the bowl entirely.
  5. Cracked bowl (extremely rare but possible after freeze damage).

Diagnostic steps (in order, free/cheap before expensive)

  1. Step on the flush pedal and look down into the bowl. The flush ball (the round seal at the bottom) should be smooth, even, and form a tight ring against the bowl.
  2. Inspect the seal for cracks, distortion, brittleness, or debris like toilet paper stuck to it.
  3. Try cleaning the seal first. Lubricate it with a few drops of plumber's grease or olive oil and run several cycles to see if it reseats.
  4. If cleaning doesn't fix it, identify your toilet brand (Dometic, Thetford, etc.) and order the matching flush ball seal kit. Brand-specific is important — they don't interchange.
  5. Shut off the water supply to the toilet. Flush to relieve any pressure.
  6. Remove the old seal by following the kit instructions. Most kits include a small retainer ring that needs to be popped off.
  7. Install the new seal with a thin coat of plumber's grease, reassemble, and test.
  8. If the toilet still doesn't hold water after seal replacement, the flush ball mechanism itself is worn — a full mechanism replacement is $50-$100.

DIY vs. call a tech

100% DIY. The seal kit comes with everything needed. The hardest part is identifying your exact toilet model — look on the side or back of the bowl base for a sticker.